Breath of the wild case and coin3/7/2023 Now this past week, JPM’s Jamie “Jumpin'” Dimon sees 2900 as feasible due to (deep breath) “valuation”, something upon which we’ve been harping for years! ‘Course the difference today is that interest rates are positive.īut wait, there’s more: You might recall this from mid-May when the S&P was over 4000: “…we see no sense fundamentally to be in the stock market…” –.įrom which we segue to having just updated this:Īnd what “this means” is that should there be no year-over-year S&P earnings growth, price at the mean is 2522, (just in case you’re scoring at home). Therein, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) earlier in this bear market suggested a target of 3400. Bear markets can be brutal.įor the S&P, regular readers well know the technical support structure runs from here at 3600 down to 3200. But for the Bulls, it did sate them for some 24 hours before better than half of Thursday’s gain was given back yesterday. Really? So we checked: the S&P 500’s percentage range between that day’s low and high was 5.6% since 1980, such range ranks 59th (hardly “historic”) across those 10,812 trading days. As Bloomy couched it, Thursday’s move was “historic”. And last Thursday’s 194-point whipsaw in the had quite the illusionary effect on the FinMedia. As we’ve oft put forth over these many years, change is an illusion whereas price is the truth. Meanwhile from the “ Money is Coming Out of Everything Dept.” we’ve the stock market and its attendant hysteria. overdone selling per the Magnet), the Gold Story remains pretty much the same: lack of ownership interest (recall the below-average, declining volume table from two missives ago) plus the purported paper price suppression continue to keep the precious metals under wraps. Regardless of such colliding technicals (the parabolic Short trend vs. Then on the right is the same analysis for Silver, her deviation also comparatively extreme: Here on the left for Gold we’ve the past three months of daily closes (thin line) along with the Magnet (thick line) the oscillator at the foot of the graphic is the distance of price from the Magnet, now notably extreme per prior troughs. Such negativity noted, the website’s Market Magnets for the precious metals are indicative of their recent selling being excessive. Indeed, Silver’s drop being nearly triple that by Gold, the Gold/Silver ratio has leapt back over 90x to 90.7x as stated at the foot of above graphic. To be sure therein, the faster daily parabolics for Gold - as well as those for Silver - had flipped to Long, sending the yellow metal to as high as 1739 and the white metal to as high as 21.31 however, both those parabolic studies have just now flipped back to Short, down from those two highs per yesterday’s settles by -5.1% and -14.6% respectively. But until Gold is again (per its historical wont) taken seriously, hardly is the current trend our friend: Rather we follow our own advice that “Shorting Gold is a bad idea”, something the purported paper price suppressors shall likely one day learn the hard way. That’s just some 50 points further down from here, which given that Gold’s EWTR (“Expect Weekly Trading Range”) is now 58 points means the sub-1600s can be reasonably reached with in a week or two. ■ “… case nonetheless suggests Gold dropping to around 1599-1585…” And within the guise of the ongoing weekly parabolic short trend (as we below see), let’s recall what herein was penned four weeks ago upon it all starting back then: In settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1650, recorded its lowest weekly close of the past four.
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